Would Marijuana Legalization Increase the Demand for Marijuana? - Economic Viewpoint

[Medical Marijuana]

Prohibition and the Demand for Goods

Here's a question a reader sent me after reading Should Governments Legalize and Tax Marijuana?.

Q: I had a questions concerning your article on the economics of the black market and should marijuana be legalized.

Even thought there would indoubtably be an outward shock in the demand for marijuana, do you feel that it would be a short-term or long-term shock given that the drug is so readily available?

I feel that there would be an outward shift in the long-run supply side of the market. Although there would be a short term shock, the drug is very easily attainable today and anybody who feels like trying it can do so with very little trouble.

A:Thank you for your great question!

My gut instinct is that demand would increase in the short-term, as the penalties for being caught with marijuana go down (to zero) and marijuana should be easier to attain (though as you state, in many places this isn't much of an issue) ; both of these factors suggest that in the short-term, demand should rise.

It's much harder to say what will happen in the long-run.

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I suspect that marijuana is appealing to some people precisely because it is illegal; humans have been tempted by the "forbidden fruit" since the time of Adam and Eve. It's possible that once marijuana has been legal for a period of time, it will no longer be seen as "cool" and demand will drop off.

That's my gut instinct on what would happen to demand under marijuana legalization. Gut instincts, however, are no replacement for serious study and evidence. Since I have not studied the subject in any great detail, the prudent thing to do would be to see what those who have studied it say. Follows is a sampling from a few different organizations.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency believes that demand for marijuana would skyrocket if legalized:

Legalization proponents claim, absurdly, that making illegal drugs legal would not cause more of these substances to be consumed, nor would addiction increase. They claim that many people can use drugs in moderation and that many would choose not to use drugs, just as many abstain from alcohol and tobacco now. Yet how much misery can already be attributed to alcoholism and smoking? Is the answer to just add more misery and addiction? From 1984 to 1996, the Dutch liberalized the use of cannabis. Surveys reveal that lifetime prevalence of cannabis in Holland increased consistently and sharply. For the age group 18-20, the increase is from 15 percent in 1984 to 44 percent in 1996.

In a report titled "The Budgetary Implications of Marijuana Prohibition, Jeffrey A. Miron, a Visiting Professor of Economics at Harvard University felt that the quantity demand for marijuana after legalization would largely be determined by price; thus there would not likely be an increase in quantity demanded if the price stayed the same. He went on to say:

If the price decline under legalization is minimal, then expenditure will not change regardless of the demand elasticity. If the price decline is noticeable but the demand elasticity is greater than or equal to 1.0 in absolute value, then expenditure will remain constant or increase. If the price decline is noticeable and the demand elasticity is less than one, then expenditure will decline. Since the decline in price is unlikely to exceed 50% and the demand elasticity is likely at least -0.5, the plausible decline in expenditure is approximately 25%. Given the estimate of $10.5 billion in expenditure on marijuana under current prohibition, this implies expenditure under legalization of about $7.9 billion.

In a report The Economics of Cannabis Legalization, the author, Dale Gieringer, suggests that the demand for marijuana would likely go up after legalization. However, he does not see this as negative, as it may cause some to switch from more harmful drugs to marijuana:

Legalization of cannabis would also divert demand from other drugs, resulting in further savings. If legalization reduced current narcotics enforcement costs by one-third to one-fourth, it might save $6 - $9 billion per year.

Nobel Prize winner Gary Becker, however, is uncertain that demand for marijuana would increase under legalization:

I obviously do agree that legalization would likely increase drug use if it lowered prices of drugs- the quantity demanded of drugs also tends to decline as their price falls. That is why I did not assume a zero price elasticity, but used 1/2 as my estimate. However, whether legalization would increase quantity demanded at a given price is far less clear. Forces go in both directions, such as the desire to obey the law versus the desire to oppose authority.

I hope these references help you answer the question "Would Marijuana Legalization Increase the Demand for Marijuana?"

From Mike Moffatt,
Your Guide to Economics.

[evanescence]

I agree that initially, the demand for weed may increase. However, once it is taxed and regulated by the government, it will become increasingly difficult to obtain. For example, in most states, it is extremely difficult to purchase alcohol or tobacco without an ID. It is easier to buy crack as a minor than cigarettes. Crack is more accessable because it is illegal and therefore, unregulated. Naturally, the Black Market is impossible to regulate or fully control. Therefore, in the place of the government, large scale drug organizations and cartels control the drug trade. Because of the lack of regulation, the products are often unsafe. I've known two people who smoked a joint laced with other drugs without their knowledge. Ironically, the fact the drugs are illegal cause most of the crimes committed in this country and our prisons are filled with people convicted on drug related charges. Trying to rid this country of drugs in an insurmountable task which will most likely see very little success. At the same time, it is costing US tax payers hundreds of billions of dollars a year. If drugs were legalized, they would become cheaper, less accessable to minors, and safer for the user since it would be regulated. If only common sense determined the fate of this country instead of partisan politics and bribery.

[ycuzican]

I have read studies that prove: increasing arrests, changing laws,(whether more or less lenient), spending more, or less on the "drug war" and 'educating the masses' have had very little effect on the avalability and use of cannabis.

people will do what they do, no matter what the man says.

[tonystarks]

I could care less about the governments drugs....We would all be able to grow our own reefer without fear of prose....I mean PERSECUTION. People are always going to try and make fast money but decriminalization would give growers the ability to support their own habits without looking over their shoulders looking for NARC's

[evanescence]

I would grow, but I'm affraid of losing my daughter. I feel on edge sometimes when I smoke, because getting caught could ruin my life. I must be "in love" with this stuff to risk it anyhow...

[Buddy21]

If Marijuana was Legal than I think all the so Called non Smokers would be Passin the
Peace-Pip Around & Smokin like the Kool People DO

[evanescence]

I doubt it. Many people are against it because of moral principals and religious beliefs.