affects of a resession/depression

[michaelkaer]

I have been thinking lately of how this global money meltdown is going to affect cannabis trade. I have been watching price increases for pot and there is a huge amount of people getting laid off or cut back on their hours so money will be very tight. What happens in tight times?- growers are going to grow. The price of pot is going to go down since there will be a glut of product out there. The other side of that is the big grow operations in BC are going to be getting a huge influx of available workers. Other areas of the country will expand their operations. I suspect the same to be true in the States. The high cost of inputs for corn and soy will make Hemp a viable crop again and save a few farmers who are on the edge right now. With more industrial hemp and more pot product available everywhere, the hemp trade will stabilize and the pot prices will go into decline for a long time period. The growth of the spin off industries around cannabis will mean a lot of Mom & Pop hemp clothing, paper, food, oil and medicines will spring up. If they have to be an underground industry, so be it. it will go on non the less. The Cops will not have the manpower to keep up to it and when they start demanding more Taxpayer's mony to support the prohibition, there will be a taxpayer's revolt and many will step forth to show the common taxpayer the already high cost of incarceration. The people will force the local government to get the cops to do real policing and lay off the potheads. Can anyone see anything wrong with my logical conclusions?

 

[michaelkaer]

I just finished watching the End of Suburbia and Escape from Suburbia so that is why my mind is on this topic.

 

[Dr. 215]

I dont see anything wrong with your opinion, its just very optimistic. Without touching any other issues you talked about i would love for the price to drop considerably.

 

[Keith Lake]

I agree that the cost of prohibition is the factor that has the best chance of ending it.

Essentially this is what is happening in Mexico and why they have begun the push to legalize posession and use of small amounts of anything. Because they've created such a resource drain chasing the cartels around that they can't waste their time on the little guy.

The price/demand theory you offer is an interesting point. Essentially, it's a question of how elastic/inelastic cannabis is as a commodity.

I agree with your general thesis that when the economy goes south people generally tend to have less money to spend so prices for most things drop in competitive response.

I'm not saying I'm right here, but I see cannabis as an inelastic commodity similar to water. People prioritize it because it's important to them. It's high on the list of where available dollars are spent (non-luxury) and would therefore tend to price-respond less to a deterioration in the economy. Again - just an opinion.

There is empirical data to consider. High Times Magazine has that THMQ feature, where they track the price of three levels of quality bud (kind/mids/schwag) over time. I haven't studied this or anything, but I do read it every month. As I recall, with the exception of slight price changes/corrections, cannabis has steadily inflated since they've maintained the records (decades ?)

if this is so, it would suggest to me that we wouldn't see a price correction during economic down turns - though it sure would be great if it happened.

 

[michaelkaer]

Most things have seen a steady increase over decades. Back in the 80's I could grab a quarterpound of homegrown for $65.00 and turn over that at $20 an oz to make enough to grab another , then turn that over and have enough for a halfpound, then that meant I could smoke all I wanted and have beer money. My wicked ways caught up with me(they busted me when I was plastered blind drunk). I have been clean and sober for the last 22 years but I still keep my ear to the ground. All the addicts that I have met over the years have kept me in tune with the local prices. Just like the cost of homes and gas and just about everything else has gone up, so has the price of pot. When harsher laws are passed the prices shoot up. That is a variable that is different from the mainstream. My point is that will thousands of desperate people who are going to have to choose between losing their home and growing, many will choose growing. With the abundance of something and a cash tight marketplace , the price has now where to go but down. People are already bypassing money and going straight to barter(just one more income stream lost to an unwilling government). The taxman in Canada has already set the precident by accepting tax money from Marc Emery. They can say it is tainted money but they have accepted it non the less. The bottom line is prepare for pot prices to go down. There is also the aspect of many people getting informed about the unconstitutional nature of the posession law that is not going to be fixed anytime soon. Because of the ruling going back to 2001, pot has been legal in small amounts. The more the cops bust people and lose then get counter sued and be forced to give all the stuff back, they are going to stop prosicuting for small offenses. That is one area we must educate the smoking public, for our own long term benefit.

 

[Damagoman]

prepare for pot prices to go down

It's a personal mission for me,
to drive them down

 

[McBudz]

If I had friends that smoke I'd give it away to them. has that for cheap?

 

[MissP]

I'm thinking the prices will go up. The sellers won't have as much business so they'll have to raise prices to make ends meet. Or, they'll get more business due to stressed out unemployed people and supply in demand will make them greedy and want to raise prices.

I *hope* your theory is correct and mine is wrong, though.

 

[michaelkaer]

MissP, I think you may be correct in the short run and I am correct in the long run. I can see your point. There is going to be an upper limit where the price can go, then look to see the price bottom out once all the laid off people will sell it for what ever they can get just to pay the mortgage or hydro. Remember, they are going to be selling to people wo do not have alot of money. I see alot of first time grower/dealers starting up and I suspect they will buy copies of the "Don't get busted" videos. Some will make mistakes and get caught and other will follow proceedure and not get caught. What I want is a stable,cheap price on regular weed. If you have the extra cash or it is a special occasion, get some of the good stuff. I kind of see it like oing to the gas station and you have 3 grades of pot to choose from and prices may fluxuate a bit from place to place, but there would be a common over all set of prices.