CA Prop 19: Legal, Regulated Marijuana Favored 50%-40% in New Poll

California’s Proposition 19, which will legalize, regulate and tax marijuana, is currently winning, 50 percent yes to 40 percent no, according to a new SurveyUSA poll of likely voters sponsored by CBS 5 KPIX-TV.

SurveyUSA 7/8-11
Prop. 19:
Certain Yes 50
Certain No 40
Not Certain 11
(Note: Because of rounding, poll does not always add up to 100 percent)

This is an automatic poll of 614 likely voters with a margin of error of 4 percent. The poll shows a substantially higher preference for marijuana legalization than other recent surveys from Field Research and Reuters/Ipsos , which both had the measure losing narrowly.

Digging deeper in the numbers, not surprisingly, we see that young voters, 18-34, overwhelmingly support Prop. 19 by a margin of 70-22, while voters over 65 oppose it 50-37. Republicans as a whole oppose the initiative, but Democrats and independents favor it by large margins. The race breakdown is the most interesting measure.

Prop 19 Whites Black Hispanic Asian
Certain Yes 50 52 46 53
Certain No 40 24 43 38
Not Certain 11 24 11 9

SurveyUSA does not show a large disparity in support for Prop. 19 between whites and minorities, while the Field Poll found racial minorities significantly more opposed to marijuana legalization than white voters were. For example, SurveyUSA found Hispanics as the racial group least inclined toward Prop. 19 but still showed them supporting it, 46-43. In the Field poll (PDF) on the other hand, Latinos opposed strongly with only 36 percent supporting Prop. 19, and 62 percent against. Field also had only a bare majority, 52 percent, of young voters supporting Prop. 19. But SurveyUSA found 70 percent of young voters planning to vote yes. This is a significant difference between the two pollsters.

I have heard speculation that there might be a slight reverse “Bradley effect,” where some voters are embarrassed to be supporting Prop. 19 and are telling a live interviewer they oppose it. This might explain why SurveyUSA’s automatic poll, without a live interviewer, has Prop. 19 doing better. Looking at the cross tabs, if there is some type of reserve Bradley effect taking place, the likely source is possibly minorities and young voters who don’t feel comfortable telling a live interviewer they support Prop. 19.

NewsHawk: Ganjarden: 420 MAGAZINE
Source: FDL
Author: Jon Walker
Contact: FDL
Copyright: FireDogLake
Website: CA Prop 19: Legal, Regulated Marijuana Favored 50%-40% in New Poll
CBS poll? give me a break they have never came close to doing a good job at polling! Ha Ha Ha ! Grab`n at straws are you? It isn`t going to pass because it doesn`t enjoy wide enough support from marijuana users and growers! Just because we smoke pot doesn`t make us a bunch of dumb asses! F to Oaksterdam money hungery azz oles! Vote No in November!

Oh CBS KPIX is of course out of the Bay Area and doesn`t come close to having the foggyest idea of what the wider views of Cali are!
Note how Asian has the highest approval rating while also the highest No along with the Lowest undecided rating.

Very interesting. As I can see that group being just that, very decisive. So there maybe some real numbers here. Without knowing all the polls specifics its hard to tell. Like what area was polled.

I have also been noting that since Oakland announced it's big 4 corporate farms rules and regs. ideas the "Approval" rating have dropped about 4-6 points.
Or maybe the Brady effect is playing on the numbers.
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