How would prop 19 affect our state and our lives?

[Dankshiznat]

I have some questions I have been seriously wondering about for some time now. And now that we are so close to finding out the results of prop 19 I have to ask a few questions.

What will be the effects on small time growers, that are supplementing their income donating medicine to the clubs and other patients?

What will happen to the underground marijuana economy? Will it disappear?

What will happen to cannabis clubs?

What will it do to the overall economy?

How will it affect the rest of the country? i.e. pot prices, supply, availability...

Would there be more or less pot coming from California into other states?

How long will it be before it actually takes affect? I'm not hip on politics so I don't know the course of action is if a proposition is passed.

Would you have to get a license from the state to start a marijuana smoke shop (where marijuana is sold and smoked)? similar to a liquor license?

Will the DEA over rule the decision? Or is it not possible for them to do that?

What are the chances of it passing in your honest opinion? Can someone refer me to some good resources on the issue? i.e. reliable polls, arguments for and against by intelligent people that have an influence over voters...

Will they start to go after anyone violating the federal law harder than ever? i.e. Going after any sellers no matter how legit and start going after buyers as well?


Just want your thoughts/insight on these issues because we all have a stake in how this plays out. I would personally love to slap the DEA in the face with a legalization so that in the broad spectrum of things we fought the law and who won? We won It would put a big smile on my face to know how disappointed the DEA agents will be that all their hard work was for nothing since (if it passes) people in jail for marijuana will be released and anyone with a record for it will have their records expunged! Be even better if Obama told the feds they CANNOT go after a state that has passed these types proposition's. It was stupid of them to go after the cannabis clubs the way they did, thats a quick way to start a revolution. Why even vote if what we pass is not respected... Thank god there are still voters who care enough to vote on these issues, a lot of people ive met are sick of voting because no matter what the result it can be overturned in a heart beat by the right people...

Thanks for reading and taking the time to write back. I hope to see a lot of responses.

 

[Wingman420]

+Rep Great Questions I live in the East and can only say the Nation is watching this closely.

 

[Kronnoisseur]

I'm seriously thinking of registering just to vote no (somebody convince me otherwise, I know this is what we've all worked for many years now) or just not vote and let fate role, it's going to look very bad to begin with because there will be 'new' crime (anybody who has been robbed and afraid to call authority), and it will take a chunk out of homegrowers just wanting to get by the day by day the market WILL rocket down due to big business, heck weGrow is proposing a 60,000sqft eb n flow grow-op in Oakland to supply California, I'm hearing the stories this time of year already just because of high grade outdoor already available today this time of year...
The effects on small time growers will be HUGE unless your holding quality not seen elsewhere i.e. strains. The smaller than big business growers producing hash and concentrate's unless the utmost quality not seen elsewhere will be greatly effected too. The hash market I predict will be strong if legal (because it involves solvents) is budder. It's BHO whipped at 140'F with an instrument of choice. The key to the budder we make is we would want to aim for the 100%-99.7%THC level. All the regular hash will be commercial, it's to easy to have it manufactured in large scale with equipment made for mass production. Supreme quality certified organic meds will prevail. Start hording your strains, don't let the big business and unions take our only edge. Cannabis clubs will continue but the rules may change. The overall economy will be better as long as the nation keeps it positive it's a big step for some. I can not say how it will effect the rest of the country, besides people are going to be more informed now. Availabilty could possibly go down or up depending on supply and number of users. Who know's when it will take effect, look who were working with, how long has it took for the economy to get better, right lmao. You would need a liscense, I do not know how exactly it will be regulated if the State/Feds get involved. And as for the DEA, well there the DEA who the heck knows. It will pass unless homegrowers feel it would be bad for them financially, or if votes are faulty..politics... I've seen poles last one was 47%no 46%yes then the rest dunno. First time it's went to no in awhile I think. You can find that easy on google. There thinking of limiting potency to 15%- and or eradicate 'kush'. They may become more casual, or they may really crack the ef down. I doubt it'd just be the same. Quality may be so different they may know it's from a private source rather than RJ Reynolds. Wow, this is really good stuff, wish they could accept it people may work more actually!

P.S. Did I ever say it's big in the answer to our nations debt though? Cuz it would be.

 

[Odin]

First off let me start by saying I am glad to see people voicing concerns over Prop 19 and not blindly following it without asking any questions. I'll do my best to answer your questions to the best of my knowledge.

I have some questions I have been seriously wondering about for some time now. And now that we are so close to finding out the results of prop 19 I have to ask a few questions.

What will be the effects on small time growers, that are supplementing their income donating medicine to the clubs and other patients?

Small time growers will be snuffed out. Plain and simple. With the announcement of the 60,000 square foot indoor facility in Oakland, others will follow. The market has been so over flooded by "slash and burn" growers already in the last 4 or 5 years, that most small time growers have already been struggling here. Pound prices are at their lowest since the days of Mexican bag weed already, so its only going to get worse. It will no longer be profitable for MMJ and current black market small time growers to keep it up. Most small timers I know are considering this their last real season and they have been struggling anyway. They are scared and trying to figure out a new livelihood.

What will happen to the underground marijuana economy? Will it disappear?

It will probably hang around for a while, but like I said, its going to dissapear. I will always grow my own and never buy from clubs or any other means when it becomes legal, so the small, friend to friend, and family to family deals will probably stay strong, but its not going to be an economy anymore.

What will happen to cannabis clubs?

I am pretty sure they will last a while too, but I foresee them dropping into oblivion as soon as cannabis becomes widely available everywhere.

What will it do to the overall economy?

Impossible to predict. Big factors are how the .Gov regulates it, and how invidiual counties will regulate it. Most likely it will help some areas (Oakland) and kill other areas (Humbolt). Any region thats current economy is supported by black market and MMJ will most likely suffer. Goes back to the OG growers. While the Oakland super facility creates 500 jobs, it kills thousands of jobs in surrounding counties.

How will it affect the rest of the country? i.e. pot prices, supply, availability...

Again, impossible to predict. My guess is there will be mass exportation of pot from California. There already is. California grows a huge chunk of the pot found in the country. Prices should go way down everywhere, and supply should be through the roof from comercial grows pumping out 200 pounds a week.

Would there be more or less pot coming from California into other states?

I think more.

How long will it be before it actually takes affect? I'm not hip on politics so I don't know the course of action is if a proposition is passed.

I am guessing January 1st, 2011. Not 100% on that.

Would you have to get a license from the state to start a marijuana smoke shop (where marijuana is sold and smoked)? similar to a liquor license?

Yes. It would be like a liquor license. I think conservative estimates coming out of varies cities range from $5,000 a permit to $50,000.

Will the DEA over rule the decision? Or is it not possible for them to do that?

They could. Eric Holder already stated the Justice Department will "viggorously" enforce Federal law. Much in the same way they sued Arizona over its immigration policy change, they will go after California much harder. It costs money to go after, incarcerate, and deport illegal aliens. It earns money fighting a war on pot. Also, much like gay marriage was voted against by the voters then overturned, Prop 19 could easily be overturned by a California judge based on a few people finding it unconstitutional, and the judge agreeing.

What are the chances of it passing in your honest opinion? Can someone refer me to some good resources on the issue? i.e. reliable polls, arguments for and against by intelligent people that have an influence over voters...

I personally think it will pass. I don't like Prop 19 and I think its going to end up causing everyone a huge headache because the way it was written allows for it to be manipulated in various ways. I'll post a couple links at the bottom.

Will they start to go after anyone violating the federal law harder than ever? i.e. Going after any sellers no matter how legit and start going after buyers as well?

The Feds already go after people legal under state law via 215. Its been happening for 15 years here. And only the big cases make headlines. Most people who grow legally under 215 and get busted are stripped of everything they have, and guilty until proven innocent. Its hard to get your story out when you have had all your bank accounts siezed, property taken, and you are locked up in a jail cell. Half the MMJ lawyers in California are greedy scumbags and do little more than get you out and take your money that you don't even have. Many cases eventually win, but not after months or years of trials and hundreds of thousands of dollars. With Eric Holders statement about the JD going full force into California, yes, they will go after people legal under Prop 19. Its still illegal under Federal law and they are going to put every man and woman they can on the job in California.

Just want your thoughts/insight on these issues because we all have a stake in how this plays out. I would personally love to slap the DEA in the face with a legalization so that in the broad spectrum of things we fought the law and who won? We won It would put a big smile on my face to know how disappointed the DEA agents will be that all their hard work was for nothing since (if it passes) people in jail for marijuana will be released and anyone with a record for it will have their records expunged! Be even better if Obama told the feds they CANNOT go after a state that has passed these types proposition's. It was stupid of them to go after the cannabis clubs the way they did, thats a quick way to start a revolution. Why even vote if what we pass is not respected... Thank god there are still voters who care enough to vote on these issues, a lot of people ive met are sick of voting because no matter what the result it can be overturned in a heart beat by the right people...

Thanks for reading and taking the time to write back. I hope to see a lot of responses.

Again, I am glad you are thinking hard about this, and voicing your concerns. This is an important issue and people, especially all of us, should be spending every waking moment until next month researching this law. I was all for it until I spent the last 3 or 4 months researching it, and learning legal mumbo jumbo to interpret accurately how the bill is worded and how that mumbo jumbo can be seen in various ways. My personal opinion is the law was written in a way that allows broad interpretation for how California and Federal lawmakers handle and enforce it. I also believe it will tighen rules on MMJ. I believe it has potential to be "set in stone" and not provide any means to ammend it further down the road. I see it as a way to comercialize pot, and destroy its fundamental roots, and the people that have been working for decades on superior genetics and quality product. I see it as turning the tables around so that people can still get arrested and fined for using and growing pot. In my ex-county for example, the DA and Sherriff announced recently that they too will "vigorously" enforce Prop 19 and will prosecute anyone violating the 5x5 grow space and the 1 oz possesion limit. The Feds have a huge presence in California right now, and its only going to get bigger.

The only way I see this working in our favor, is if other states legalize like a wildfire. OR (or maybe WA, maybe both) has already proposed a much better version of Prop 19, so I hope other states REVISE THE HELL out of it and put it up on their own ballots, ASAP. ABX6 9 is definitely a step in the right direction for California.

Anyway, these are my opinions from what I have read over the last 4 or so months. Here are a couple links that provide some good points to think about. In reality, no one really knows what exactly will happen when its legalized. Its all predictions really. No one can be certain of anything. I would love to think that more people won't get arrested after Prop 19, but deep down I know at the very least, its going to be a battlezone in California.

What marijuana lawyers have to say about California's Proposition 19 | palmspringsbum

Toke It Easy, Man: More on Proposition 19 | Probable Cause

Stoners Against the Prop. 19 Tax Cannabis Initiative: WHY PRO-POT ACTIVISTS OPPOSE PROP. 19: 19 REASONS TO VOTE KNOW

Those are just a few. Read, read, read, and think. Form your own opinion. My opinion is Prop 19 is a bad law, and needs serious work to put the power in our hands, not in the Government's hands. Regardless of your opinion, everyone needs to get out and vote, and not just on Prop 19 too.

 

[Supernova]

I love you Odin, you are just plainly amazing. Congrats on getting all the right information out there.

 

[Seraphim]

I'd like to weigh in on this if I may...

My issue is only with a small part of your well thought out response. In particular the following observation:

Small time growers will be snuffed out. Plain and simple. With the announcement of the 60,000 square foot indoor facility in Oakland, others will follow.

I am not sure about this and here is why:

With the feds announcing that they will vigorously enforce MJ prohibition I wonder who they would go after. It would make sense to me that the larger grows, such as these 60,000 sq/ft grow ... would be the number one target for the DEA.

I just dont see such large operations succeeding for the simple fact that they would be the first the feds take down and also because of the following:

When you buy bud for your personal consumption, you care about quality. Now what type of quality can you expect to get from a 60,000 sq/ft grow? How closely are those plants being watched and cared for?

I think the mega grows will be unable to produce the best quality product because of the logistics involved with producing the dank at such a large scale. It would either be too expensive for them to pay all the experienced growers it would take to properly tend those plants or they would do it in a more production type manner in line with modern industrial operations and by doing so they would inevitably sacrifice quality. Sure there may be patches of a batch that happened to be picked at just the right time, but there will be others that are picked with the lot outside their time just to meet production schedules and such. I can just see so many reasons why a large scale grow, even if the feds stood by and allowed it to go on, would fail to put out top quality at that scale.

In the end, when you are buying bud and you have a choice between dank bud grown by a small grower or some lame, mass produced green ..... I don't know but I think most folks would pay a little more for the better quality. Of course, if my logic turn out to be correct, then there will always be a place for a grower who knows how to put out top quality regardless of their size.. which would inherently not be able to be too large because the feds would come and bite them.

Thoughts?

 

[SnowBender]

small time quality medical growers will not be negatively effected. greedy shwag growers will be snuffed out.

Black market will still exist, and 49 other states will still want Cali grown weed.

anything larger than current medical sized grows will quickly be shut down by the fed. which will lead to legal cases that will help bring big time media attention to prohibition.

In reality its mostly a token prop, that while its tied up in court, will open the door for complete legalization from coast to coast, while keeping those that want to grow a little personal head space out of jail.

Yes. It would be like a liquor license. I think conservative estimates coming out of varies cities range from $5,000 a permit to $50,000."

false- these fees would be chosen and set by local muni's not by the state. Many communities will embrace the pot biz, and keep fees low to attract more growers and smoke tourists. and those areas against commercial/retail pot will have to play catch up after they realize how silly it was to turn their noses up...

 

[Seraphim]

One of the other aspects that I think is not being talked about is the boom to the California tourism industry which is in store if Prop 19 passes.

Think of all of the people who travel to Amsterdam for a taste of freedom who now would have a much closer, cheaper and less hassle option.

I think there will be a large number of our nug-loving brothers and sisters who will want to go to Cali for the weekend for the chance at choosing from 50 or more different strains in one sitting. (Hell I know I would!!) I know it is difficult to estimate what that number will be but I bet it will be nothing to sneeze at.

Cali-Nug Tours anyone?

 

[Odin]

I'd like to weigh in on this if I may...

My issue is only with a small part of your well thought out response. In particular the following observation:



I am not sure about this and here is why:

With the feds announcing that they will vigorously enforce MJ prohibition I wonder who they would go after. It would make sense to me that the larger grows, such as these 60,000 sq/ft grow ... would be the number one target for the DEA.

I just dont see such large operations succeeding for the simple fact that they would be the first the feds take down and also because of the following:

When you buy bud for your personal consumption, you care about quality. Now what type of quality can you expect to get from a 60,000 sq/ft grow? How closely are those plants being watched and cared for?

I think the mega grows will be unable to produce the best quality product because of the logistics involved with producing the dank at such a large scale. It would either be too expensive for them to pay all the experienced growers it would take to properly tend those plants or they would do it in a more production type manner in line with modern industrial operations and by doing so they would inevitably sacrifice quality. Sure there may be patches of a batch that happened to be picked at just the right time, but there will be others that are picked with the lot outside their time just to meet production schedules and such. I can just see so many reasons why a large scale grow, even if the feds stood by and allowed it to go on, would fail to put out top quality at that scale.

In the end, when you are buying bud and you have a choice between dank bud grown by a small grower or some lame, mass produced green ..... I don't know but I think most folks would pay a little more for the better quality. Of course, if my logic turn out to be correct, then there will always be a place for a grower who knows how to put out top quality regardless of their size.. which would inherently not be able to be too large because the feds would come and bite them.

Thoughts?

Excellent post. The biggest thing I have been thinking about is HOW the Feds are going to do this. They are going to come in, but how are they gonna go about it? Logic dictates like you said, the big operations will be obviously targets. Will the Feds try and work their way in to get profits? Will they let it go, while they go after anyone and everyone? Or will they start big and trickle their way down? I take it back, I really don't know how that part will play out.

However, my statements about snuffing out smaller growers I still stand behind. I have a good friend who has been growing since the 70s. He has 30 years of genetics he has been working on and perfecting. In the last 4 or 5 years, he has been having a harder time selling his product to clubs. The reason is because most people selling to clubs are not MMJ growers. Just because you have a card doesn't mean you are growing legal MMJ. While my friend struggles to grow his limit and still make a living, the guys coming in with dirt cheap pounds of good looking stuff (because looks are a huge part of the market right now, and in the last 10 years.) are moving their product. When he comes in and tries to get a measly 2K a pound for his strains that have 30 years of work into them, he is lucky if they offer him $1000 a pound. Most people I know that grow medical marijuana have been preparing to get into new lines of work, because they haven't been able to make a living off of growing medical cannabis in a long time. It has turned into a supplemental income if that more than it has a career because its just not steady anymore here. My friend has been buying popular strains from the clubs and saving his genetics for personal only. Just to keep up. The main people supplying the clubs are big, illegal black market operations. And by big I am talking 100+ plants. You can still grow 2 or 300 very quality plants, and if purple is in, it sells.

Not to mention, the genetics in California are fantastic. Most all the weed here is good weed, so like I said, it all comes down to looks, and brand names. Purple sells. Green crack sells. OG Kush, not popular. If everyone has good weed (which will only get BETTER with time), it doesn't matter if you grow the best. Cuz everyone else has the best, or if they don't, they already know where to get it. Pound prices are hovering around $1000 right now average in N. California at the moment. At best, selling weed to your buddies or whatever is going to be extra pocket change. Not a way to make a living. I'm not convinced a 60,000 square foot warehouse can't produce killer buds either.

small time quality medical growers will not be negatively effected. greedy shwag growers will be snuffed out.

Black market will still exist, and 49 other states will still want Cali grown weed.

anything larger than current medical sized grows will quickly be shut down by the fed. which will lead to legal cases that will help bring big time media attention to prohibition.

In reality its mostly a token prop, that while its tied up in court, will open the door for complete legalization from coast to coast, while keeping those that want to grow a little personal head space out of jail.

I know you have read many of my posts, and one thing I have been trying to beat into people's minds is that the Medical Cannabis market in California has been RUINED by what I call "slash and burn" growers. There is no background check on sellers at Cannabis clubs. You have a script and membership card you can sell them weed. People trying to grow legally, within the limits to sell to clubs are not able to compete with people growing "MMJ" illegally. The guy that grows 300 plants with 1 script can give away his product for the lowest possible price. You get 500 of these people, it sets the bar. Pound prices are ridiculously low here and have been for some time. Its not like its going to get more expensive. Small time quality growers are not going to be negatively effected? They already are. There are still a lot of people selling legit MMJ and making money, but there are more people who aren't. In my eyes, the MMJ market and black market have been so intertwined in the last 10 years its hard to seperate them as two seperate things. The irony is the illegally grown weed is whats ending up in most clubs and the legal growers are looking to the black market to try and get some profit back.

Of course the out of state black market will persist. And you are absolutely right, the only way Prop 19 will work is if this spreads like a wildfire. Its good to see other states already stepping up with their own legislation based on 19.

false- these fees would be chosen and set by local muni's not by the state. Many communities will embrace the pot biz, and keep fees low to attract more growers and smoke tourists. and those areas against commercial/retail pot will have to play catch up after they realize how silly it was to turn their noses up...

I think you misread my post, I said the estimates were coming out of local governments, not state governments. I don't know my current county's possition on it, but the last county I lived in was setting very strict rules on it and has not mentioned their position on issuing licenses. However they have continuely banned medical pot dispensaries, so I don't see their mind changing much in regards to 19.

One of the other aspects that I think is not being talked about is the boom to the California tourism industry which is in store if Prop 19 passes.

Think of all of the people who travel to Amsterdam for a taste of freedom who now would have a much closer, cheaper and less hassle option.

I think there will be a large number of our nug-loving brothers and sisters who will want to go to Cali for the weekend for the chance at choosing from 50 or more different strains in one sitting. (Hell I know I would!!) I know it is difficult to estimate what that number will be but I bet it will be nothing to sneeze at.

Cali-Nug Tours anyone?

That is a great point. I do believe tourism will boom, but thats only if the Feds don't go ape shit on us first. I don't think many people are going to want to flock to a state that is being invaded by the Government for trying to do the right thing. Places like Humbolt county have already been embracing a Marijuana tourism boom for over a decade. With a more legitimate front to put out there, tourism will definitely be a boon to the state if we can keep the rat bastard Feds off our backs first.

 

[SnowBender]

with 19s passage i believe we will finally see slash and burn, looks only weed, priced as it should be, under $1k...and retain the current higher end prices of 3k+. -think about how dom perignon or crystal is priced vs. cooks.

Originally Posted by Dankshiznat in How would prop 19 affect our state and our lives?
Would you have to get a license from the state to start a marijuana smoke shop (where marijuana is sold and smoked)? similar to a liquor license?
Yes. It would be like a liquor license. I think conservative estimates coming out of varies cities range from $5,000 a permit to $50,000.

sorry I misread dankshiznats post as part of yours.

some counties and cities will surely charge more and others less...and some will say no to commercial/retail all together. But the ones with lower rates will attract more revenue and other communities will fallow suit to compete for the tax dollars and tourism.

 

[Odin]

with 19s passage i believe we will finally see slash and burn, looks only weed, priced as it should be, under $1k...and retain the current higher end prices of 3k+. -think about how dom perignon or crystal is priced vs. cooks.

sorry I misread dankshiznats post as part of yours.

some counties and cities will surely charge more and others less...and some will say no to commercial/retail all together. But the ones with lower rates will attract more revenue and other communities will fallow suit to compete for the tax dollars and tourism.

Perhaps prices will balance out with time, however if highest quality medicinal herb is getting $1-1500 right now, I really fail to see prices go any higher.

 

[Odin]

I love you Odin, you are just plainly amazing. Congrats on getting all the right information out there.

Oh, and thank you.

 

[SnowBender]

highest quality medicinal herb is getting $1-1500 right now

Wow, are you in the wrong market....True high grade is still getting well over 3k in this neck of the woods..and still fairly hard to find in quantity.

 

[Odin]

Wow, are you in the wrong market....True high grade is still getting well over 3k in this neck of the woods..and still fairly hard to find in quantity.

That is fantastic. If you don't want to publically post it here, can you PM me the names and contact information for these clubs in your area that are paying 3K+ for true high grade medicine? I know several people that would love to journey your way so they can get a fair price for their high grade meds, instead of having to wait half way through the year to get a fair price. Clubs from Tahoe to SF won't pay top dollar for anything. I'd like to see my friends get what they deserve.

Thanks.

 

[SnowBender]

Unfortunately clubs don't really want the highest grade, they instead want highest profits.

You cant get local farmer's market farm fresh produce grown with love from Safeway...

 

[Odin]

Wow, are you in the wrong market....True high grade is still getting well over 3k in this neck of the woods..and still fairly hard to find in quantity.

Unfortunately clubs don't really want the highest grade, they instead want highest profits.

You cant get local farmer's market farm fresh produce grown with love from Safeway...

...

 

[SnowBender]

Agreed, I yawn at the clubs offers too...

 

[Wingman420]

The Electorate has spoken. while I am not a California resident I have heard and read news reports and various concerns in regards to 19. I believe California citizens and lawmakers can do far better than the Prop 19 Bill. After all these are the citizens who gave the Nation Medical Marijuana, I am sure the citizens and Lawmakers of California will hammer out sensible legislation that addresses all concerns while giving freedom to grow Marijuana freely without counts and measurements. Legal means exactly that, free from police interference and subjective ineterpretations, intrusions, inspections, and ability to incarcerrate. That battle continues....

 

[FoolsParadise]

Condolences to Cali tokers who were hoping Prop 19 would pass. However I was pleased to see it failed because it was conceived for all the wrong reasons. As Wingman mentioned, it wasn’t about freedom. It was about bureaucrats wanting more money. I’d gladly guerilla garden before I’d allow a worthless government employee tell me what I can grow while sticking his hands deeper into my pockets.

 

[Odin]

The Electorate has spoken. while I am not a California resident I have heard and read news reports and various concerns in regards to 19. I believe California citizens and lawmakers can do far better than the Prop 19 Bill. After all these are the citizens who gave the Nation Medical Marijuana, I am sure the citizens and Lawmakers of California will hammer out sensible legislation that addresses all concerns while giving freedom to grow Marijuana freely without counts and measurements. Legal means exactly that, free from police interference and subjective ineterpretations, intrusions, inspections, and ability to incarcerrate. That battle continues....

Condolences to Cali tokers who were hoping Prop 19 would pass. However I was pleased to see it failed because it was conceived for all the wrong reasons. As Wingman mentioned, it wasn't about freedom. It was about bureaucrats wanting more money. I'd gladly guerilla garden before I'd allow a worthless government employee tell me what I can grow while sticking his hands deeper into my pockets.