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Mexican police and soldiers in the northern border city of Tijuana last week made the largest seizure of packaged marijuana the country has yet seen: 15,300 neatly wrapped parcels weighing in at 134 tonnes and coded with pictures ranging from a schoolbook illustration of a dog to a portrait of Homer Simpson.
Yet, as the centre-right administration of President Felipe Calderón was claiming another victory in its war on drugs, Californians a stone's throw from where the seizure took place were gearing up to vote on whether to legalise marijuana via a statewide ballot on November 2.
The timing of the two events has highlighted the divergent responses of authorities to the consumption of drugs, and has focused attention on how the vote may affect things south of the border.
Even Mr Calderón himself, who has made combating drugs cartels the centrepiece of his administration and has spoken out against legalising narcotics, admitted that the California vote placed Mexico in an awkward position.
"It is going to create a problem that is very tough to resolve," he told La Razón newspaper this month. "If approved, it is going to be very hard to imprison a peasant who is growing marijuana to sell to the Californians."
In Mexico, it is permitted to have small quantities of marijuana and other drugs — though it is still illegal to buy and sell them. Privately, government officials say the California vote on full legalisation is "very demoralising" for Mexico as it fights to contain the country's powerful criminal gangs.
Much of the attention has centred on to what extent a yes vote — if its implementation is not held up by federal law — would affect business for those criminal structures.
According to a study by the Rand Corporation, a US think-tank, Mexican drug-trafficking cartels supply between 40 per cent and 67 per cent of all marijuana consumed in the US with a value of between $1.1bn and $2bn. But the study adds that legalisation of marijuana in California may not have much of an effect on profits.
One reason, it argues, is that marijuana sales to the US make up between 15 per cent and 26 per cent of the cartels' total revenue. A second reason is that California accounts for about 7 per cent of the US market for Mexican marijuana. Mexican profits from marijuana could be hurt, however, if Californian marijuana started to displace Mexican sales in other states.
For those who were hoping that a yes vote in California would lead to a big hit for drugs cartels operating in Mexico and a possible reduction in recent levels of drugs-related violence, those findings are bad news.
Since Mr Calderón declared war on organised crime in December 2006, about 30,000 people have died from drugs-related violence.
Mexicans have grown accustomed to reading about — and sometimes seeing — bodies dangling from bridges and severed heads on the shore of beach resorts. Some Mexicans believe a vote in favour of legalising marijuana in California might, at least, bring about a change of government policy in Mexico.
Sitting on Madero Street in Mexico City's historic centre, 21-year-old Alejandra Cruz says that she blames Mr Calderón's war for the increased violence in the country. Her home town in the state of Morelos is overrun by the army yet gang killings have reached unprecedented levels.
"The army presence has only made things worse," she says. "If California votes yes, it might show us here in Mexico that there is an alternative approach."
Her sentiments are shared by many members of Mexico's intellectual elites. Nexos, a current affairs magazine, dedicated this month's issue to legalisation, and several likely contenders for the 2012 presidential election said there should be a debate on the subject if the California proposition passes.
Yet with Mr Calderon reticent there is little chance that Mexico will take any steps unaccompanied.
Andres Rozental, a former Mexican ambassador, says the only way to broach the issue is through a multinational forum to reconsider public-policy attitudes to drugs and to debate legalisation. "Current policy is clearly not working, but not even Mexico, Canada and the US acting together can change things," he says. "This is a global problem and it requires a global response."
NewsHawk: @MedicalNeed : 420 MAGAZINE
Source:ft.com
Author: Adam Thomson
Contact: Help | FT Help | FT.com What happened to Press Cuttings?
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 2010
Website:FT.com / Americas - Mexico put on the spot by events north of the border
Yet, as the centre-right administration of President Felipe Calderón was claiming another victory in its war on drugs, Californians a stone's throw from where the seizure took place were gearing up to vote on whether to legalise marijuana via a statewide ballot on November 2.
The timing of the two events has highlighted the divergent responses of authorities to the consumption of drugs, and has focused attention on how the vote may affect things south of the border.
Even Mr Calderón himself, who has made combating drugs cartels the centrepiece of his administration and has spoken out against legalising narcotics, admitted that the California vote placed Mexico in an awkward position.
"It is going to create a problem that is very tough to resolve," he told La Razón newspaper this month. "If approved, it is going to be very hard to imprison a peasant who is growing marijuana to sell to the Californians."
In Mexico, it is permitted to have small quantities of marijuana and other drugs — though it is still illegal to buy and sell them. Privately, government officials say the California vote on full legalisation is "very demoralising" for Mexico as it fights to contain the country's powerful criminal gangs.
Much of the attention has centred on to what extent a yes vote — if its implementation is not held up by federal law — would affect business for those criminal structures.
According to a study by the Rand Corporation, a US think-tank, Mexican drug-trafficking cartels supply between 40 per cent and 67 per cent of all marijuana consumed in the US with a value of between $1.1bn and $2bn. But the study adds that legalisation of marijuana in California may not have much of an effect on profits.
One reason, it argues, is that marijuana sales to the US make up between 15 per cent and 26 per cent of the cartels' total revenue. A second reason is that California accounts for about 7 per cent of the US market for Mexican marijuana. Mexican profits from marijuana could be hurt, however, if Californian marijuana started to displace Mexican sales in other states.
For those who were hoping that a yes vote in California would lead to a big hit for drugs cartels operating in Mexico and a possible reduction in recent levels of drugs-related violence, those findings are bad news.
Since Mr Calderón declared war on organised crime in December 2006, about 30,000 people have died from drugs-related violence.
Mexicans have grown accustomed to reading about — and sometimes seeing — bodies dangling from bridges and severed heads on the shore of beach resorts. Some Mexicans believe a vote in favour of legalising marijuana in California might, at least, bring about a change of government policy in Mexico.
Sitting on Madero Street in Mexico City's historic centre, 21-year-old Alejandra Cruz says that she blames Mr Calderón's war for the increased violence in the country. Her home town in the state of Morelos is overrun by the army yet gang killings have reached unprecedented levels.
"The army presence has only made things worse," she says. "If California votes yes, it might show us here in Mexico that there is an alternative approach."
Her sentiments are shared by many members of Mexico's intellectual elites. Nexos, a current affairs magazine, dedicated this month's issue to legalisation, and several likely contenders for the 2012 presidential election said there should be a debate on the subject if the California proposition passes.
Yet with Mr Calderon reticent there is little chance that Mexico will take any steps unaccompanied.
Andres Rozental, a former Mexican ambassador, says the only way to broach the issue is through a multinational forum to reconsider public-policy attitudes to drugs and to debate legalisation. "Current policy is clearly not working, but not even Mexico, Canada and the US acting together can change things," he says. "This is a global problem and it requires a global response."
NewsHawk: @MedicalNeed : 420 MAGAZINE
Source:ft.com
Author: Adam Thomson
Contact: Help | FT Help | FT.com What happened to Press Cuttings?
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited 2010
Website:FT.com / Americas - Mexico put on the spot by events north of the border
