Math on seeds

[SarahJane211]

I’d still rather pay for a $10 seed in a fancy shiny package from some ‘trusted’ business that seems to be really real, than 50 seeds in a ziplock bag for $9, from ‘Bob’.

I'd take the 50 pack from 'Bob'.
Especially if it's surrounded by bud at the time.

 

[Weaselcracker]

Look mr. You're one of the seed producers from what I'm gathering here, looks like I hit somekind nerve.

No. And no. Not at all bro. Completely off track. Just joking around and not even directed at you. Sorry you don’t get the humor and very sorry to cause you any grief, and extra typing.

 

[SarahJane211]

No. On your own, one guy. Every two years, using separate greenhouses you manage to produce five new strains. With a good reputation and most of the new strains you create being top sellers, you also have been taught in school by educated botanists and have ten years of experience which pretty much totally eliminates any problems you might run across in growing or breeding. You clone all five F1 mother plants at the end and get 200,000 seeds of each strain, totaling 1,000,000 seeds. How much should you get paid for one million $15.00 seeds getting sold by that seedbank? Or in other words, two years work that could be done in an average size suburbanite home?

Why cannabis?
Crystal meth is easier to make and has a higher profit margin!

 

[The Celt]

@Bob Loblaw,

All kidding aside Bob, and I met some of these guys on here about 6 years ago, I doubt anyone intended to infer anything with the joking

I think what most of us were getting at, in regards to seed prices, is that its still an illegal market, even here in Canada, including the seed you buy at a store. Technically, the only plants we are allowed to grow here are from seed/clones bought from the licensed growers like Tilray etc. Even the “crowned clown”seeds Weasel mentioned are not legal to grow here in Canada.

As it is still illegal to grow from other seed, and commercial seed production is illegal for any but the licensed producers, there is much risk involved in producing seeds and new strains for the market. It’s a niche market, much like craft beer which costs more. So between the illegality and being a niche market, prices are high compared to normal crop seed and is likely to remain so.

 

[The Celt]

No. On your own, one guy. Every two years, using separate greenhouses you manage to produce five new strains. With a good reputation and most of the new strains you create being top sellers, you also have been taught in school by educated botanists and have ten years of experience which pretty much totally eliminates any problems you might run across in growing or breeding. You clone all five F1 mother plants at the end and get 200,000 seeds of each strain, totaling 1,000,000 seeds. How much should you get paid for one million $15.00 seeds getting sold by that seedbank? Or in other words, two years work that could be done in an average size suburbanite home?

OK so let’s break this down into expenses, neglecting the 2 greenhouses:

#1 - 2 years of my life spent developing 5 new strains - I make 70k a year with an education. Someone educated as a botanist likely would make comparable to this.

140k for 2 years giving up my job.

#2 - I get 1M seed. If I make them into packs of 5, that’s 200k packages. Say it costs me, material and labour, $0.75 for each package.

150k packaging

#3 - Now I have to convince some seed banks to buy my seed, or sell on consignment (this route is cheaper than marketing myself). There is a couple months of phone calls.

another 12k in wages for me.

Now to sweeten the pot and get seed banks to carry my seed, I sell them for $10 a package, they have to have their markup as well

possible max revenue of $2M, but wait we are not done.

As seed banks often carry 100s of strains, and rarely advertise one above another, I have to hope that someone‘s interest is peaked by my offering. If I am lucky, I might actually sell 1/2 my stock over the next 5 years.

Now we are down to $1M spread over the next 5 years, hmmm, not looking as attractive as I originally thought.

So, 7 years later my tally sheet would look something like this:

Expenses - 7 years salary $490k. Revenue - 1M (if I am lucky)
- packaging. $150k

Profit - possible $360k

Really not that great considering it took 7 years, and that doesn’t take into account the illegality risks or the fact that after 7 years, chances are that someone else has started producing seed from my strain and putting it on the market and there is SFA I can do to stop them.

If you are a botanist worth your salt, go work for one of the many nutrient companies, you will have less risk, less stress and make nearly as much.

Just my thoughts mate.

 

[PotChimp]

You're subtracting your salary from your total costs before profits? There might be one of the reasons we're spending so much on seeds.

 

[The Celt]

@PotChimp, of course I am including my salary, if this is going to be my income, I have to pay myself. Anyone going into business with the intent of working for free is not just missing a screw, he lost the whole box lol

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Either way I think that The Celt gets the grand prize for logic here. Thank you very much... I'm really feeling like I need to send you something for this prize as well. I just like the well thought out response that much. Well that and I was just about to go check out the rules here, are trades something we can do? This for that - quid pro quo? I have some really nice homemade pens I used to try to sell.

 

[The Celt]

Technically we are not allowed to send stuff to one another, but that being said, I read a lot of posts of members who have got this or that from someone else on here

As for the “reasoning and logic”, that’s what the company I work for hired me for lol I am educated in engineering and work as the Operations Supervisor, overseeing multiple crews repairing concrete infrastructure. With that comes a lot of planning and cost analysis

 

[PotChimp]

A one man operation subtracting his own salary from costs before calculating profit? Try "of course not" on for size! That's crooked as phukk.

 

[PotChimp]

And a good breeder is worth 80 grand a year; one penny more is nothing but blatant greed.

 

[Jackalope]

Okay, so here's the question that gets the whole saloon fist fighting each other I'll probably be the one that gets thrown through the swinging doors out into the street for asking, but how much do you guys think a non-college degreed marijuana breeder should earn in a year?

My first question. What does a college degree have to do with breeding marijuana?

The answer to your question: He can make as much money as he possible can. Whether he is selling a ton a cheap seeds or just a few really good seeds. That's what free market is all about.

I should add. We as consumers should be the difference. Happy customer's are return customers!

 

[Chris Scorpio]

 

[bobrown14]

Why cannabis?
Crystal meth is easier to make and has a higher profit margin!

Answer = explosive fire

and I like my teeth.

@Bob Loblaw - relax brother we all friends here.

You can make some extra pocket change with a larger pot to grow in.

For seed - order online. It's a discreet envelope ffs, aint all that hard. I wouldn't drive 10 feet to buy seeds.

If things are really that tough for ya try and figure out something better/easier. Driving all that for crap seed, that's not making anything easier. <constructive observations>/

 

[bobrown14]

@Bob Loblaw,



As it is still illegal to grow from other seed, and commercial seed production is illegal for any but the licensed producers, there is much risk involved in producing seeds and new strains for the market. It’s a niche market, much like craft beer which costs more. So between the illegality and being a niche market, prices are high compared to normal crop seed and is likely to remain so.

I'm getting a Monsanto Moment here.

OK so cannabis legal for rec and you can grow your own, 4 plants per household in Ontario last time I checked. You have to purchase CLONES only from a government run dispensary (or whatever they call themselves these days). Seed growing I thought was illegal (period). I could be wrong.


So enter in Monsanto and they get in bed with the government officials, make a deal for GMO weed they can DNA trace with an easy test. They've done it with corn and soybeans.

"sell" that to the government officials and by "sell" I mean BRIBE. Now Monsanto has control over the complete market from seeds to final product and everything in between.

I'll stick to MY shtick thank you but no thank you.

I thought the whole idea behind going legal for rec was to shut off the black market supply? This type of business model the Canadian government set up is completely off balance. I would not support it, and by not support I mean don't waste my money and NEVER let the government know I like weed. So IF I have to show my ID at the counter to purchase any cannabis product - no way no how.

 

[The Celt]

@bobrown14 ,

This is what happens when politicians and lawyers put their heads together to make laws about things they have no understanding of.

At one point they were going to restrict height of plants to a maximum of 1 metre (39 3/8”). I’ve never had an outdoor plant under 6 feet lol

 

[bobrown14]

OMG.... height limit? Why so your neighbor wont be able to see your flowers?? Thats just silly. They cant see the forest for the trees lol

Monsanto will lead them to water! You'll see.

 

[AdaminCO]

The full quote is "I don't remember saying anywhere that I wanted to produce seeds. Just bringing up a subject. I also don't remember saying I was looking to buy seeds just yet. "

Somehow you broke that down to "I don't remember" "I also don't remember" ? Then you go on to talk about your hookers coke and champagne?

Look mr. You're one of the seed producers from what I'm gathering here, looks like I hit somekind nerve... I can relate I've only 1 of those suckers left myself. But to suggest my math is going next is pretty lame IMO. Maybe my math is wrong have you ever counted your seeds from 1 plant? maybe there's less.....or more. Or do you just weigh them, how many seeds are in a lb anyway? Instead of giving us reasons your making a big joke about this. There are legitimate arguments for you no doubt
That dopey royal clown mascot you talking about? Does that refer to the seeds I bought? I dunno, all I know is when I go to the store to buy seeds my choices are very limited as in one choice of breeder per store and I need to travel 60 mile round trip to find a city with 3 stores in it. 3 stores = a possible 3 different breeders (lucky if you get 2). I don't give a rats ass who produced the seeds I'm just looking for some seeds and I would like to know at least if there are auto or not auto, bag seeds can throw shit off time for me.
I grow 2-4 plants legally, personal use. I ain't no master grower I'm a master smoker though. Personal use and I have very little to give away for now, my pots sit up high (no kneeling) my pots are shallow so I don't expect big yields anytime soon, don't need them either.

I'm on disability, my income is $800/month I'm allowed to make $5000/year and not a penny more, I wish I could earn that $5000 instead I have to cash in rrsp every year to keep the wolves away. I plate my car only in the months I have DR's appointment (3 time/year). I did the math and I questioned, you were quick to rebut, that's cool but I believe carrying on with somekind argument is not gonna be my best option. I do get out of hand, perhaps I already did again I don't recall all that I've I've said in this very thread. bla bla bla there I go rambling on.... check my tag out.

I smoke pot and it's byproducts, I gave up mushrooms, alcohol and acid years ago and I never did like cocaine. Last I sold any pot was years ago last I bought pot was when it became legal here. I grow my own for myself and friends. I barely pay my bills and could use extra cash but I don't produce enough and it's illegal. Not saying I'm a saint just saying I don't need any unnecessary risks at this time in my life.

$60/grow is a bit much in my books, cloning puts me in that 'unnecessary risks' category.

One last thing buying online is not an option everyone can access.

If you’re in the states, look up @New420Guy Seeds

Paul is a good guy, and they have super fast shipping. Way cheaper than anyone in the market.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Once again buying online is not an option everyone enjoys. In some cases it is just not possible. Thanks anyways.

Grow more and sell? I used to sell years ago.... no thanks I don't need that again. I used to give them papers with their purchase... next don't you know they expected me to roll it up for them too. Pure hell that was, how many times does a person have to tell someone to fuck off.

 

[skirk]

When I start my seed delivery by drone, I'll have to tack on 20%.